Encouragement

src: Tim Maddog

Comments from Tim Maddog:
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Note that BS-TV's numbers (Hey, that's my screenshot!) are -- with the exception of the Taitung numbers -- different from info I downloaded from the Central Election Commission web site [MS Word .doc file, percentage calculations mine]:
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Taoyuan: DPP = 53,633 (58.05%) / KMT = 36,989 (40.01%)
Taichung: DPP = 63,335 (55.02%) / KMT = 51,776 (44.98%)
Taitung: DPP = 23,190 (49.46%) / KMT = 21,215 (45.25%)
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That might be the result of invalid ballots being figured into the CEC's numbers -- I didn't check.

I'm looking forward to the February 27, 2010 by-election.

Tim Maddog

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Some analysis from Vive Le Taiwan:

台中: DPP: 63,335 (up from 61,927 in 2008, 多 1,408 票)

KMT 51,776 (down from 75,563 in 2008, 跌: 23,787 票)

"中間選民"幾乎全部失蹤.



桃園: DPP: 53,633 (down from 58,577 in 2008, 跌 4,944 票)

KMT: 36,989 (down from 71,174 in 2008, 跌 34,185 票)

DPP 選票減少, "中間選民"幾乎全部失蹤.



台東: DPP: 23,190 (up from 21,080(無黨籍許志雄), 多 2,110 票)

KMT: 21,215 (down from 34,794 in 2008, 跌 13,579 票)

無: 2,482 (深藍)

Note: (KMT+無) = 23,697 > 23,190 (DPP) 藍仍然大於綠

"中間選民"幾乎全部失蹤.

In response to the Vive Le Taiwan someone shared:

"Compared with the 2008 elections, the voters were different as a result of, e.g., lower turnouts, emergence of new voters, and deaths of previous voters. So were the candidates. In local elections, relationships/affinities a candidate has with voters has a huge impact on the results. "

His point seems to be that this 2010 election is not completely comparable to the 2008 election. So to calculate number changes does not really give us a complete understanding of the voter makeup.